Polymarket Bets Foreshadow U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Spark Insider Concerns

A cluster of newly created accounts on the betting platform Polymarket placed eerily precise wagers on a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran just hours before the truce was announced on April 7. These bets, made despite a lack of public signals suggesting an imminent deal, resulted in profits exceeding $300,000. Blockchain data reveals one wallet, created the same day, made $72,000 in wagers and cashed out with a $200,000 windfall. Another account, started on April 6, netted $125,500 in profits.